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Local elections 2011 – how Andy’s predictions are playing out

May 6, 2011

Andy Sawford made a whole bunch of predictions about the local elections on Wednesday night. Below in red you can see all the results so far and have a check on how well he’s doing. We’re still bringing in results from around the country on @LGIU

  1. Birmingham, the biggest local authority in England, is currently run by a Conservative and Lib Dem coalition.   Labour will hope to make gains, but the council is likely to remain in no overall control. Labour make big gains but not enough to take control. Now biggest party by 16 seats. Lib Dems saying though they won’t go into coalition with Labour. Also, two people were arrested after seals were broken on two ballot boxes at the count in the Harborne ward.
  2. Bolton was hotly contested last time around when Labour lost overall control.  They remain the largest party and will hope to regain control.   Lab gain from NOC, Lab: 35 C: 20 LD: 5
  3. Bradford – after many years out of power Labour now run a minority administration.  They would need a net gain of six seats to win overall control. Labour have fallen one seat short of taking control – BNP hold their seat
  4. Bury is split Con 23, Labour 20 and Lib Dems 8.   The arithmetic of the 16 seats up for grabs means only the Conservatives could take overall control, but Labour will be hoping to emerge as the largest party. Labour take control – doubling their number of seats from 13 to 26!
  5. Calderdale is a rare Lib Dem and Labour administration.  The council make up is intriguing, with 21 Conservatives, 17 Lib Dems and 10 Labour.  Could the Conservatives snatch control? Conservatives and Labour both pick up seats, but still no overall control.
  6. Dudley – the Conservatives have a good majority and are likely to hold on to control.  With only a third of seats up for election Labour would need to make spectacular gains in order to snatch control.  If that happens, it will be one of the stories of the night. No big story in the end Conservative hold, Labour gain two.
  7. Kirklees council is about as hung as it gets, with 19 Conservatives, 24 Labour, 20 Lib Dems and 6 others.  Currently in Labour minority control, they will hope to make gains.  This is always an interesting council to watch. Labour gain but not enough to take control
  8. Leeds switched from a Conservative and Lib Dem coalition to a Labour administration, backed by the Greens last year.  Labour will expect to take outright control tomorrow. Labour take control.
  9. Liverpool switched from Lib Dem to Labour control last year.   The Lib Dem Leader stepped down last week unexpectedly.   Another nationally prominent Liverpool Lib Dem, Cllr Richard Kemp, has fired many warning shots across the bows of the coalition government.   If the Lib Dems lose big in Liverpool at these elections it could fuel grassroots unrest. Huge Labour gains with an 18 year old beating former Lib Dem council leader

10.Newcastle is the big fight of the night, with Labour hoping to gain enough seats to win control from the Lib Dems for the first time in many years.  The Lib Dems are defending 16 seats, Labour are defending 9.  Labour would need to make a net gain of 6 seats to win.  This is a nail biter for Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband. Labour got the 6 they needed and are now in control

11. Oldham – after Labour’s strong showing in the recent parliamentary by-election they will be optimistic about their chances of snatching control from the current Lib Dem and Conservative administration. Good live reporting in Oldham from Saddleworth News – Labour confident take control and they did.

12. Rochdale has been in minority Lib Dem and Conservative control but recent defections, and possibly some Labour gains, make the outcome of this election unpredictable.  Rochdale’s most famous elector, Gillian Duffy, is said to be voting Labour this time. 4 independent seats – no party has overall control

13. Sheffield’s current balance is 42 Lib dems, 39 Labour and two others.  Labour is widely expected to make gains here. One of the key indicators of the Nick Clegg effect – Labour take control

14. Solihull is an interesting Conservative and Lib Dem battle, where the Conservatives will be hoping to win overall control. Conservative gain 18 seats to take control

15. Trafford is Conservative controlled with a comfortable majority but it has been a bell weather council in the past and Labour will be hoping to make inroads. Labour fail to make big inroads – Tories hold

16. Wirral is currently in no overall control with a Conservative and Lib Dem administration.  The Conservatives will hope to remain in the driving seat after these elections but Labour could become the largest party. Labour become largest party with 29 seats, Tories have 27.

17. Wolverhampton is finely balanced. Labour has a wafer thin majority which they will hope to consolidate this time. Labour hold with four extra seats.

18.Bath and N.E Somerset is a prospect for a Conservative gain from NOC. Tories and Lib Dems have 29 seats each

19. Blackburn with Darwen – Labour will hope to win a handful of seats to gain control. Labour gain.

20. Blackpool looks to be comfortably Conservative – they hold 27 seats to Labour’s 12 and the Lib Dems 3.   A change of control here is unlikely but not out of the question and Labour have high hopes. High hopes which are realised as a big swing to Labour sees them gain control.

21. Brighton and Hove always produces interesting and sometimes surprising results.  It is now a four way contest, with the Greens featuring strongly.  With every seat up for grabs tomorrow, anything could happen.  The Greens are widely expected to do well. Sources inside the Brighton count tell me they tip the Greens to emerge as the largest party – and our sources were right as the Greens took an extra 10 seats to move ahead of the Conservatives as largest party.

22.Bristol is one of the Lib Dems prize councils.   They currently have 38 of the 70 seats.  With a third of the council seats up this time, of which 12 are Lib Dem, any one of the three main parties could emerge as the largest party. Lib Dems lose control – LD: 33 Lab: 21 C: 14 

23.Derby is a very interesting three way contest.  The results here could have telling implications for how each party is performing in the East Midlands. Labour now with 22 seats –but no where near majority.

24.Hull is another big Lib Dem run city that Labour are seeking to win.  Lots of eyes will be on this result. Lots of attention on this overnight with Lib Dem leader declaring defeat early.

25.Milton Keynes is currently a Lib Dem minority administration.  For the Conservatives, who did well here in the last General Election, this is one of their best hopes for a council gain. Tories do indeed gain seats at Lib Dem expense but NOC.

26.Plymouth is likely to remain Conservative but this is one of Labour’s few strong areas in the South West and they will hope to make some gains. Tories  hold.

27.Poole is Conservative led.  Will they strengthen their majority or could their Lib Dem challengers make gains? Tories lose control and Poole are now left with an interesting mix of seats – C: 21 LD: 18 Ind: 3

28. Portsmouth is Lib Dem led and home to marginal parliamentary seats, so Lib Dems will be hoping to hold off a Conservative challenge. Portsmouth Lib Dems will be very relieved this morning to wake up and still be the largest party.

29.Reading is always lively at election time.  Labour is currently the largest party but would have to do very well in the elections to snatch control from the Conservative and Lib Dem coalition administration. Andy reports – Labour make gains in Reading. Conservatives and Lib Dems don’t have enough for majority. Lab may seek deal with the 2 Greens

30. South Gloucestershire has a minority Conservative administration.  With all out elections tomorrow they will be hoping to take overall control. Tories just fail to gain enough seats to take control

31. Southampton is home to two Labour MPs but a Conservative council.   Whatever happens on election day, with only a third of the seats up, and the Conservatives having 28 of the 48 seats overall, they look likely to remain in the driving seat. Conservatives indeed remain in control in Southampton.

32.Stockton has an unusual Labour and Conservative administration.  Independents have done very well here in recent elections and it will be interesting to see if that continues. Labour gains but still no overall control.

33.Telford and Wrekin is a minority Conservative administration and they will be hoping to win majority control. Big swing to Labour as they take control

34.Thurrock is keenly contested between Labour and the Conservatives.  There is currently a minority Labour administration.  The results here will be an indication of whether Labour is recovering ground in the South. Labour gain two, NOC.

35.Windsor and Maidenhead is Eric Pickles favourite council.  The Conservative’s have a comfortable majority already but will nevertheless be hoping to make gains from the Lib Dems. Easy – tories gain 14, Lib Dems lose 14

36.York is a keenly fought contest between the Lib Dems, who are currently in minority control, and Labour who will hope to make gains. A bad one for the Lib Dems, they lose 11 seats as Labour take control.

37.Ashfield is hung, with the Lib Dems as the largest party. It could be a Labour gain. And it is, as Labour take an extra 15 seats and control

38. Broxtowe – possible Conservative gain. Swing to Labour NOC

39.Chelmsford – a keenly fought contest between the Conservatives and Lib Dems. Conservatives hold with 40 seats – Lib Dems with 15

40. Chesterfield – Labour won the parliamentary seat here from the Lib Dems last year.  The Lib Dems currently have a big majority on the council, so should hold on, but Labour might be hoping to pull of a surprise here. Not yet declared – Andy reports that his sources are telling him “shock Labour gains” are on the cards. Andy’s sources were right: massive swing to Labour as Lib Dems lose 23 seats to them. One of the results of the day for Labour.

41. Eastleigh is home to Lib Dem Cabinet Minister Chris Huhne.  The Lib Dems are defending 12 council seats here while the Conservatives are defending none, so have everything to gain and nothing to lose. Lib Dems hold and perhaps the only place where they pick up seats

42.Gravesham was Labour controlled until 2007 when the Conservatives won.  It will be hotly contested this time. Labour win control back from the Conservatives.

43.Guildford is a traditional Lib Dem and Conservative battleground and it will be interesting to see what happens here.  The Conservatives currently have a small majority. Conservatives hold.

44.Hinckley and Bosworth is a Lib Dem administration that the Conservatives are targeting for gains. Lib Dem hold.

45.Lincoln is a Labour and Conservative toss up on the council.  This is a key parliamentary marginal so the local elections results will be seen as having added significance. Labour do just enough to take control

46.North Norfolk – home to Lib Dem MP Norman Lamb – is a Conservative target to gain from the Lib Dems. Tory gain from Lib Dems

47.Northampton was a Lib Dem gain at the last election, in one of the big stories of the 2007 elections where Labour was reduced to only 5 seats.   If the pendulum swings back the Lib Dems could lose control of the council. Looks like a Conservative gain.

48. North Warwickshire is a Conservative and Labour marginal.  Labour would need to gain only a few seats to snatch control from the Conservatives. Labour gain enough seats to take control 18 – 17 Labour

49.Taunton Deane is currently in no overall control and both the Conservatives and Lib Dems will be trying to gain a majority. Neither manage. it; still no overall control

50. Teignbridge is a Conservative and Lib Dem toss up currently in no overall control. Conservative gain at Lib Dem expense.

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